Ramayana Box Office Prediction: Can Ranbir Kapoor’s ₹4,000 Crore Epic Beat Ranveer Singh’s Dhurandhar 2?

Nitesh Tiwari’s Ramayana: Rise of a Legend, starring Ranbir Kapoor, Sai Pallavi and Yash, is heading towards one of the most closely watched theatrical releases in Indian cinema. With a reported combined budget of ₹4,000 crore for its two parts and an ambitious worldwide release plan, the epic is carrying enormous expectations at the box office.

The first instalment is scheduled for a worldwide theatrical release on November 5, 2026, across Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, Malayalam and English. The scale of the production and its reported distribution plans have raised a major question: can Ramayana deliver an opening big enough to challenge the records set by Ranveer Singh’s Dhurandhar: The Revenge?

Trade analysts have offered different predictions. While some believe the film could cross ₹100 crore on its opening day in India, others expect a more measured start, with its business potentially gaining momentum over the extended theatrical run.

Ramayana Day 1 Box Office Prediction: Can It Cross ₹100 Crore?

According to the supplied trade figures, Ramayana had crossed ₹50 crore gross in advance sales across India as of November 2. Maharashtra was reportedly leading state-wise pre-sales, followed by Delhi and Karnataka. However, the advance booking numbers had not fully matched the scale of the film’s pre-release buzz, with the film reportedly trailing Yash’s previous release, Toxic: A Fairy Tale for Grown-Ups, in pre-sales at that point.

Chennai-based trade analyst Ramesh Bala expects the film to open strongly, with current bookings playing an important role in its first-day total. He predicted an opening of approximately ₹100–150 crore in India, with North India contributing a significant share and Karnataka emerging as another major market.

Exhibitor Akkshay Rathie also believes the film has the potential to cross ₹100 crore on its opening day. He pointed to Yash’s popularity in Karnataka, ticket prices and the anticipation surrounding the project as factors that could help drive collections.

Veteran trade expert Taran Adarsh expressed strong confidence in the film’s prospects after watching it. He predicted that it could become the highest pre-Diwali opener of all time, adding that its scale, grandeur and emotional appeal could help it set new records.

However, film business expert Girish Johar offered a more cautious estimate. He expects an opening of around ₹50 crore in India, suggesting that the film could follow a slower-start pattern before its business improves after Diwali.

Will Ramayana Beat Ranveer Singh’s Dhurandhar 2?

One of the biggest box-office comparisons surrounding Ramayana is with Ranveer Singh’s Dhurandhar: The Revenge. According to the figures cited in the supplied report, the film earned more than ₹1,800 crore worldwide and recorded an India net opening of ₹102.55 crore across languages.

That opening has created a significant benchmark for upcoming big-budget Indian releases. For Ramayana to move ahead of it, the film will need strong opening-day collections as well as sustained audience interest across domestic and international markets.

Ramesh Bala believes beating Dhurandhar: The Revenge will not be easy. He pointed to the film’s strong performance in Hindi-speaking markets, its reported four-week house-full run and repeat audience value as important factors behind its success.

Bala also suggested that Ramayana would need a strong overseas performance to compete at that level. He said that while he hopes the epic surpasses Dhurandhar: The Revenge, achieving that target will be challenging.

Akkshay Rathie, however, sees considerable potential in the Ranbir Kapoor-led project. He believes Ramayana could exceed Dhurandhar 2 in net collections because of its scale and its potential to connect with audiences across India and overseas.

The contrasting views underline the uncertainty surrounding the film’s box-office prospects. Its reported budget may make the expectations unusually high, but the eventual verdict will depend on ticket sales, audience response and the film’s ability to sustain collections.

Will Mixed Reactions From the Los Angeles Premiere Affect Ramayana?

The film has faced discussion and criticism even before its theatrical release. Its initial glimpse and subsequent promotional material attracted debate over the visual effects, while the casting of Ranbir Kapoor as Rama and Sai Pallavi as Sita also prompted varied reactions.

Following the Los Angeles premiere, early responses reportedly differed on aspects such as the screenplay, pacing, visual effects and background score. Whether these reactions will influence Indian audiences remains a subject of debate among trade experts.

Taran Adarsh does not believe the Los Angeles response should be treated as a direct indicator of the film’s performance in India. He pointed out that the English version screened there was reportedly 35–40 minutes shorter than the Indian version, making the viewing experience different.

Girish Johar shared a similar view, suggesting that international audiences may approach the story differently from Indian viewers, for whom the Ramayana carries deep cultural and religious significance.

Ramesh Bala, however, believes negative reactions from overseas screenings could influence domestic perceptions, particularly because critical comments can spread quickly on social media. He also noted that the Los Angeles premiere had not yet produced the kind of advance-booking boost that some might have expected.

Ramayana Box Office: How Will the Film Perform in South India?

Karnataka is expected to be an important market for Ramayana, particularly because of Yash’s popularity in the state. Ramesh Bala identified Karnataka as a key contributor to the film’s southern collections and cited reported pre-sales of approximately ₹3 crore there as of Monday.

However, the film is expected to face competition in other southern markets. In Tamil Nadu, Bala pointed to Suriya’s Scene and Nayanthara’s Mookuthi Amman 2 as competing releases. He also identified Scene as a competing title in Kerala, while Venkatesh’s Aadardha Kutumbam was reportedly performing well in Telugu-speaking states.

Bala suggested that the film’s advance bookings in the South were not yet comparable to those of major releases led by stars such as Rajinikanth or Allu Arjun. He expects the film’s performance in these markets to depend heavily on audience word-of-mouth after release.

According to his assessment, Ramayana could have a stronger advantage in North India, where the story’s cultural significance and the Ayodhya sentiment may contribute to audience interest. Karnataka, meanwhile, could benefit from Yash’s local following.

Can Ramayana Justify Its Reported ₹4,000 Crore Budget?

The reported ₹4,000 crore budget for the two-part adaptation has become a major talking point. With a large-scale production, a global promotional campaign and a planned release across six languages, the project carries expectations that extend beyond its opening-day figures.

However, the opening predictions from trade experts vary considerably. Ramesh Bala expects ₹100–150 crore, Akkshay Rathie believes the film can cross ₹100 crore, while Girish Johar has projected approximately ₹50 crore.

These estimates are predictions, not confirmed box-office results. The film’s actual performance will become clearer after its theatrical release, when audience response, repeat viewership and international collections begin shaping its overall run.

For now, Ramayana faces a major box-office test. Whether Ranbir Kapoor’s epic can challenge the records associated with Ranveer Singh’s Dhurandhar: The Revenge will depend on how strongly audiences respond once the film reaches theatres.

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